2008 Super 14 predictions

A little late this year for my predictions as the matches started yesterday. After watching the Crusaders outplay the Brumbies and the Sharks struggle against the The Force, it blows my prediction out of the water. Still, here goes…..

In my opinion the outcome of the 2008 Super 14 tournament should be the same old story with the same teams dominating the top places.
What the squads think, what the writers think and what the bookies think is pretty much what I think when it comes to picking a winner of the third Super 14 and 13th Super Rugby title.

It boils down to six teams – the top two in each of South Africa, New Zealand and Australia.

I will start at the bottom with the Stormers, the Cheetahs, the Lions, the Hurricanes, the Chiefs, the Highlanders, the Force and the Reds in the bottom section. Although the Reds got the wooden spoon last year, I believe they will move one up and the Force will be the bottom team.

This is how I believe think the log might look come the night of May 17 after the Sharks and the Chiefs have completed the last of the round robin matches.

1. Bulls

2. Crusaders

3. Blues
4.Sharks

5.Warattahs

6. Brumbies
7. Hurricanes
8. Stormers
9.Highlanders

10. Cheetahs
11. Chiefs
12. Lions
13. Reds
14. Force

Everyone expects teh Crusaders to be on top of the log due to their marvelous record but I see the Bulls pulling a few away 5 pointers and should top the log. This is what should make this year’s competition most intriguing.

The Crusaders have lost Aaron Mauger and Chris Jack, but they have gained Ali Williams and still have Richie McCaw and Dan Carter and, of course, Robbie Deans.

The Blues are New Zealand’s provincial champions and go into the tournament with arguably the most settled squad – an important factor in a year marked by numerous departures, of coaches and players, and the resultant introduction of many initiates – but they do tour South Africa right at the start and could be derailed.

And you can’t think of bigger gaps to fill than those left by the leaving of George Gregan and Stephen Larkham at the Brumbies and John Smit, Percy Montgomery and Butch James, South Africa’s unsung hero at the World Cup, at the Sharks.

My team has always been the Sharks and I believe after losing Percy Montgomery, John Smit and Butch James will still dominate. The youngsters pair of Wylon Murray and Frans Steyn has a lot more experience and with Michalak at stand off will be a very fast backline.

The Cheetahs and Lions have depth issues that could be exacerbated by injuries in key positions while the Stormers, who start off by playing last season’s top three sides before going on tour but then have a nice run at home, again have question marks over the potency of their tight forwards.

This leaves it to the Bulls to again do it for South Africa by reaching the play-offs for the fourth year in a row – without Heyneke Meyer, Victor Matfield and a good number of other important contributors. The champions, however, still have an array of world-rated players, depth that makes all the others green with envy and a pretty favourable draw that includes seven home games at Loftus Versfeld.

There seems to be a high regard for John Mitchell’s impressively improving Force, the Hurricanes have an impressive team list, the Chiefs have a lot of experience.

I want to see the impact the experimental laws will have on Australian teams and am also intrigued on Rassie Erasmus effect on the under performing Stormers.

Those are my predictions.